New Tool May Predict Early Recurrence of Stroke

Averting second, possibly deadly, attack may soon be a reality

I remember treating stroke sufferers early in my career.  Not an easy thing to do.  Few things can derail a normal life like a stroke can.  Of course, one of the best predictors of a stroke is whether or not you've already had one.   But doctors previously could not determine when that inevitable event would strike a person.

Until now.

Researchers have developed a tool to predict whether a patient will suffer a second stroke within 90 days of a first stroke.

This is considered of great importance because studies have shown that people who have a second stroke soon after a first stroke are more likely to die or have severe disability. Thus, this tool can help doctors identify people who are at high risk of having another stroke and need immediate evaluation.

The tool -- called the Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 Days score -- uses brain scan results and a number of stroke risk factors to calculate a person's chances of having another stroke within three months. The risk factors include history of transient ischemic attack (mini-stroke), age and type of first stroke. The higher a patient's score, the greater their risk for a second stroke.

In a study of 1,458 ischemic stroke patients, researchers found that those with four or more risk factors were about 40 times more likely to suffer a second stroke than those with no risk factors. The study also found that more than 96 percent of patients who had a second stroke showed signs of one or more risk factors.

Surprisingly, long-term predictors of stroke -- such as smoking, diabetes and hypertension -- didn't predict short-term risk.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't give up poor lifestyle habits, however, as researchers currently don't have a well-developed tool for predicting short-term risk of early recurrent stroke. Therefore this tool is most apt to help identify people at high risk of a second stroke who can be immediately admitted to specialized stroke centers and given preventive treatment.

The tool's accuracy still needs to be confirmed before it can be made available for general use, however.

Until then, we do know that genetics, cardiovascular health, obesity, and other lifestyle habits do seem to play a role in stroke.